The Super Bowl 51 championship game was a reminder that anything can happen. We all thought the game was over at half-time, when the winner was trailing 21-3.
Probabilistically Thinking
2017-03-03, Jason Reed
17th century mathematicians Blaise Pascal and Pierre de Fermat advanced our understanding of probability with what is now called the Gambler’s Ruin Problem.
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Uncomfortable But Necessary
2017-01-27, Clement Chiang
It is challenging to stick to contrarian thinking, even when your data suggests you’re doing the right thing.
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A Year Of Change And Extremes
2017-01-06, Joe Jugovic
With the Brexit outcome, the Trump victory, and the Chicago Cubs winning the World Series after 108 years, the art of forecasting is the year’s biggest loser!
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Reducing Our Error Rate
2016-12-02, Steven Kim
2016’s events are an acute reminder that anyone’s ability to consistently predict future events is limited.
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Regime Shift
2016-11-18, Clement Chiang
A regime shift, in ecology, is defined as an abrupt and significant change in the behaviour and/or structure of a system.
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The Case For Patience
2016-08-12, Steven Kim
As the compensation for accepting risk is at record lows, it is time to think harder about managing risk rather than chasing return.
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Able And Willing
2016-06-10, Clement Chiang
With central banks distorting the time value of money through unconventional policies, investors can easily be lulled into lax balance sheet standards.
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A Negative Art
2016-05-06, Clement Chiang
We believe a defensive posture fixated on minimizing risk will equate to a positive real rate of return over a long time horizon.
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What Comes Around
2016-03-18, Mathew Hermary
Although there have been periods of similar underperformance in the past, value investing has historically been a superior way to generate long term returns.