We can’t predict the future. Instead, we aim to create portfolios that are positioned for a range of market outcomes.

We can’t predict the future. Instead, we aim to create portfolios that are positioned for a range of market outcomes.
The probability of recession is high. For companies and portfolios, what does it mean to be positioned defensively?
History suggests a useful upgrade to the axiom might be “Fortune favours… the prudently bold.” Examples of measured risk taking.
Without a concrete investment thesis it is easier to lose conviction in what you own, increasing the risk of an ill timed exit that cements a capital loss.
The world of investing is neither predictable nor orderly. The best we can do is create bands of reasonably probable outcomes.
Applying Sir Winston Churchill’s concept of “corkscrew thinkers” – people who were unafraid to think and act differently than others – to investing.