An appreciation for history can inform decision making, but it can also lead one astray. Portfolio diversification provides a buffer against uncertainty.
An appreciation for history can inform decision making, but it can also lead one astray. Portfolio diversification provides a buffer against uncertainty.
We can’t predict the future. Instead, we aim to create portfolios that are positioned for a range of market outcomes.
The probability of recession is high. For companies and portfolios, what does it mean to be positioned defensively?
History suggests a useful upgrade to the axiom might be “Fortune favours… the prudently bold.” Examples of measured risk taking.
Without a concrete investment thesis it is easier to lose conviction in what you own, increasing the risk of an ill timed exit that cements a capital loss.
The world of investing is neither predictable nor orderly. The best we can do is create bands of reasonably probable outcomes.